The US defense credibility crisis
The US is facing a deterrence credibility crisis. Iran was willing to attack Israel directly because it does not fear American power. Allies around the world are taking note, so are rivals.
Israel and its allies’ shooting down of 300 Iranian missiles and drones was astonishing, but it does not conceal that Iran attacked Israel because it does not fear US reprisal. Tehran rightly bet that the US would defend Israel, but not respond militarily. It has even threatened to attack American bases in the region should the US launch any strikes. The US is allowing itself to be bullied.
America’s allies are watching nervously. They fear their security architecture is built on a US that no longer exists; the one that was strong, would fight for its allies, common interests, and shared values. That America may be disappearing, gorging on itself like an emperor in Rome’s latter days.
Much of the blame lies with US President Joe Biden. The Democrats have been corrupted by decadent woke nonsense. They have been fighting over pronouns and microaggressions, while Russia, Iran, and China have been expanding their militaries and their influence.
After a stellar response to Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, Biden succumbed to hysteria on his party’s Left, and Pro-Palestinian street mobs, and caved into the narrative of lies about Israel’s war in Gaza. Bowing to grubby domestic politics, he has pressured Israel not to go into Rafah to destroy Hamas’ remaining four battalions, effectively asking Israel to lose the war. Biden even threatened to change US policy towards Israel if it did not change its strategy and allow more aid into Gaza (for Hamas to steal).
America’s deterrence credentials have never recovered from President Barack Obama doing nothing in 2012 when Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad crossed Obama’s “red line” and used chemical weapons on his own people. Biden has also set a pattern of appeasement with Iran, allowing billions of dollars in oil revenues to flow to it for minor concessions. Iran is now on the cusp of having nuclear weapons.
The US is continuing this failed approach by encouraging Israel to show restraint, or even not to respond, to Iran’s attack in the name of “regional stability”. That is more than poor counsel; it is madness. Israel must show it is committed to the most robust defense of its citizens. The US should end its meekness and provide Israel with its 14,000-kilogram (30,000 pound) bunker-busting bombs to target Iran’s nuclear facilities. That would restore some credibility.
Other Western leaders and the feckless United Nations are also calling for Israeli restraint. Similar cowardice is what led to the West’s failure of Ukraine. Dithering over whether to give Ukraine top-shelf weaponry when Russia invaded handed Russia the war, and probably a chunk of Ukraine. This delay allowed Russia to fortify its positions, stifle Ukrainian counteroffensives, and make further gains. Biden is not fully to blame. A recalcitrant Congress is holding up billions of dollars of Ukraine funding.
It is impossible to know what Donald Trump’s position on any of this would be. He has no idea himself. He is also a liar. He took a tougher line with Iran, but his isolationist instincts are worrying, especially his lack of commitment to NATO. Isolationism is the surest route to declining American influence.
FRETTING ALLIES
America’s allies are fretting. To assuage doubts, Biden keeps saying the US' commitment to its allies is "ironclad".
In Europe, especially the East, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a chilling effect. Russia’s deterrence credibility, especially its loose talk about its nuclear arsenal, contrasts with the US’ lack of credibility. The US has said that it, along with the rest of NATO, will defend member countries should Russia attack. However, Russia will see the US’ lack of action against Iran as weakness, and as instructive. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who envisages a return to Soviet glory, or even that of Catherine the Great, is unlikely to stop at Ukraine if he succeeds.
Trump has spooked Europe by saying that under his leadership, the US would not defend NATO members that are not spending the required two percent of their gross domestic product on defense. He may boast that these threats are getting European states to increase their defense spending, but to European ears it sounds like the US is looking for an excuse to stay out of any future European war. A fear of Russia, and a fear that the US may not support NATO members, is what is driving Europe’s increased defense spending.
In the Asia Pacific, the question of whether the US would go to war with China to defend Taiwan looms. America’s Taiwan Relations Act requires the US to provide Taiwan with arms for its defense, but it is not obliged to defend the island. The US keeps China guessing with a policy of strategic ambiguity.
Japan, South Korea, and Australia are beefing up their militaries and trying to bind the US more deeply into the region’s defense structures.
Japan, concerned about China and North Korea, has unshackled itself from its pacifist post-World War Two constitution and is spending $300 billion through 2027, making it the world's third largest defense spender. The US, Japan, and the Philippines have just held their first trilateral defense summit to counter China in the hotly contested South China Sea.
Japan and the Philippines have defense treaties with the US, but a troubled history with each other, so their working in concert is significant. The US has bases in both countries and is adding more in the Philippines. The three countries’ navies have conducted joint patrols. Not everyone is convinced. The Philippines’ ex-prime minister, Rodrigo Duterte, has warned that “America will not die for us”.
Australia, meanwhile, is acquiring longer-range missiles to counter China’s growing blue-water navy, and upgrading its own navy into one that looks more suited to fighting in the South China Sea than defending Australia’s vast shores.
Under AUKUS, a defense pact, the US and Britain will help build Australia at least eight nuclear-powered submarines and provide the country with US Virginia Class submarines in the meantime. It is trying to shore up US deterrence. At $368 billion over 10 years, that is an expensive gamble, given America’s recent fondness for appeasement and its possible dalliance with isolationism. Many in Australia, including former prime ministers from both sides of politics, have expressed alarm.
China can play a long game. It might be bellicose with its threats to invade Taiwan at any time. However, it is also placing a long-term bet that growing isolationism and waning US power could do the rest.
Just as the Vietnam war dented America’s appetite for overseas wars until it exorcised those ghosts in 1990 with the First Gulf War, the US is now scarred by its invasions and occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. This confidence crisis is unfolding in a more multipolar world where rivals are challenging American dominance.
America’s values, and its willingness to defend them, is what has made it an extraordinary superpower. It must remember this and reestablish its deterrence credentials. Standing up to Iran’s grotesque theocratic regime is a good starting place.
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https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-retaliates-against-iran-by-attaching-note-to-pallet-of-cash-that-says-please-do-not-use-for-terrorism
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https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20582/iranian-attack