The US defense credibility crisis

The US is facing a deterrence credibility crisis. Iran was willing to attack Israel directly because it does not fear American power. Allies around the world are taking note, so are rivals.

The US has a deterrence credibility crisis.

Israel and its allies’ shooting down of 300 Iranian missiles and drones was astonishing, but it does not conceal that Iran attacked Israel because it does not fear US reprisal. Tehran rightly bet that the US would defend Israel, but not respond militarily. It has even threatened to attack American bases in the region should the US launch any strikes. The US is allowing itself to be bullied.

America’s allies are watching nervously. They fear their security architecture is built on a US that no longer exists; the one that was strong, would fight for its allies, common interests, and shared values. That America may be disappearing, gorging on itself like an emperor in Rome’s latter days.

Much of the blame lies with US President Joe Biden. The Democrats have been corrupted by decadent woke nonsense. They have been fighting over pronouns and microaggressions, while Russia, Iran, and China have been expanding their militaries and their influence.

After a stellar response to Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, Biden succumbed to hysteria on his party’s Left, and Pro-Palestinian street mobs, and caved into the narrative of lies about Israel’s war in Gaza. Bowing to grubby domestic politics, he has pressured Israel not to go into Rafah to destroy Hamas’ remaining four battalions, effectively asking Israel to lose the war. Biden even threatened to change US policy towards Israel if it did not change its strategy and allow more aid into Gaza (for Hamas to steal).

America’s deterrence credentials have never recovered from President Barack Obama doing nothing in 2012 when Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad crossed Obama’s “red line” and used chemical weapons on his own people. Biden has also set a pattern of appeasement with Iran, allowing billions of dollars in oil revenues to flow to it for minor concessions. Iran is now on the cusp of having nuclear weapons.

The US is continuing this failed approach by encouraging Israel to show restraint, or even not to respond, to Iran’s attack in the name of “regional stability”. That is more than poor counsel; it is madness. Israel must show it is committed to the most robust defense of its citizens. The US should end its meekness and provide Israel with its 14,000-kilogram (30,000 pound) bunker-busting bombs to target Iran’s nuclear facilities. That would restore some credibility.

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An appropriate response to Iran’s attack on Israel should produce something like this. (Jonathan Majburd, with permission)

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Other Western leaders and the feckless United Nations are also calling for Israeli restraint. Similar cowardice is what led to the West’s failure of Ukraine. Dithering over whether to give Ukraine top-shelf weaponry when Russia invaded handed Russia the war, and probably a chunk of Ukraine. This delay allowed Russia to fortify its positions, stifle Ukrainian counteroffensives, and make further gains. Biden is not fully to blame. A recalcitrant Congress is holding up billions of dollars of Ukraine funding.